The United States is making a risky bet, gambling that the potential rewards of a diplomatic deal with Russia are worth the certain damage to its relationship with India. This high-stakes wager is centered on energy, sanctions, and the war in Ukraine.
The gamble involves offering Russia significant economic incentives. These include the possibility of Exxon Mobil re-entering the country’s energy market, a major prize that the US hopes will be enough to bring Moscow to the peace table.
The cost of this bet is the strain it places on the US-India partnership. By imposing 50% tariffs on India for its Russian oil trade, the US is alienating a key ally and creating a perception of hypocrisy.
Whether this risky bet pays off remains to be seen. If the talks with Russia lead to a lasting peace in Ukraine, the administration may see it as a success. If they fail, the US may find it has damaged its relationship with a vital democratic partner for no tangible gain.